The year 2024 is going to be challenging for the supporters of Liberal Democracy:
The election season is getting closer and it's going to be more spectacular than ever. For the first time, more than half of the global population will have national elections in 2024. Nearly 2 billion people will be casting ballots in more than 70 countries, according to historical trends in voter turnout. Voting will take place from India to Indonesia and from Britain to Bangladesh. It will, however, be anything but a great year for democracy, despite its seeming expectations.
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| Countries holding elections in 2024 (Photo Credit: The Economist/ Doug Saunders on X) |
Illiberal rulers will be
strengthened by many elections. The corrupt and unskilled will be rewarded by
others. The US presidential election, by far the most significant fight, will
be so divided and toxic that it will negatively affect world politics. The
future course of the United States of America and the global order that its
leadership has up to now guaranteed will be in risk against a backdrop of war
ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. This year is going to be dangerous and
scary.
In 2024, 40 Countries
Will Cast Votes:
This year, 40 countries will
have elections, and 3.2 billion people will cast ballots in those elections, according to Bloomberg (The Economist estimates that number is closer to 4.17
billion). But as the new year rushes in with its endless stream of surveys and
findings, there are two crucial swing factors that you really need to keep in
mind.
A few elections will be clearly
bogus. For example, the primary discussion in Belarus or Rwanda is how
near the incumbent will receive to a 100% vote share. Vladimir Putin is likely
to be elected to a third consecutive term (and fifth overall) as president of Russia
after making an illegal amendment to the constitution in 2020 that removed term
limits.
Asia will
cast many of the votes. Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia—its
three largest democracies—will all have elections. sadly, the threat is the
rise of illiberalism. India has experienced remarkable geopolitical and
economic success under Narendra Modi, despite the prime minister's support for
discrimination against Muslims and the loss of institutional rights.
The most elections will take
place in Africa, yet the continent's citizens are growing distrustful of
democracy. The rate of coups is rising since 2020, nine regimes have taken over
through force. According to polls, a growing number of Africans are more likely
to support a military regime.
Not all the news is bad. Mexico
is set to elect its first female president, as the two front-runners are
both female and less conservative than the previous president. Finally, British
voters will have a choice between two suitable applicants. Labor is expected
win after 14 years of Tory control, but few people outside of Britain will
notice much of the change.
Certain elections will affect
their nation significantly from outside its borders. The outcome of Taiwan's
18 million voters' choice between the more China-friendly Kuomintang (kmt) and
the current Democratic Progressive Party will have an impact on cross-strait
relations and, consequently, the extent of friction between the United States
and China. A kmt victory could, in the short run, reduce the potential of
conflict. However, Taiwan's complacency might eventually raise the possibility
of Chinese adventurism and a great-power conflict in the medium term.
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